Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 120,032
2 South Dakota 110,087
3 Wisconsin 87,348
4 Iowa 87,256
5 Nebraska 83,850
6 Utah 82,619
7 Tennessee 80,434
8 Rhode Island 77,467
9 Idaho 76,259
10 Montana 74,645
11 Wyoming 74,642
12 Illinois 74,154
13 Indiana 73,793
14 Kansas 73,171
15 Minnesota 72,543
16 Arkansas 71,203
17 Nevada 70,662
18 Oklahoma 70,543
19 Alabama 70,490
20 Mississippi 69,347
21 Arizona 67,936
22 Missouri 65,858
23 New Mexico 65,798
24 Louisiana 64,473
25 Alaska 62,261
26 Florida 59,222
27 Texas 58,336
28 Kentucky 57,931
29 South Carolina 57,524
30 Georgia 57,506
31 Ohio 57,363
32 Colorado 56,657
33 Delaware 56,540
34 California 54,849
35 New Jersey 52,145
36 Michigan 51,625
37 Massachusetts 51,176
38 North Carolina 49,336
39 Connecticut 48,451
40 Pennsylvania 47,984
41 New York 47,722
42 West Virginia 45,035
43 Maryland 44,239
44 District of Columbia 39,960
45 Virginia 39,080
46 Puerto Rico 33,454
47 Washington 31,653
48 New Hampshire 30,012
49 Oregon 26,017
50 Maine 16,277
51 Hawaii 14,877
52 Vermont 11,264

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 California 1,006
2 Tennessee 826
3 South Carolina 721
4 Delaware 699
5 West Virginia 645
6 North Carolina 617
7 Oklahoma 554
8 Indiana 550
9 New York 550
10 Nevada 540
11 Massachusetts 522
12 Arizona 503
13 Ohio 481
14 Pennsylvania 473
15 New Hampshire 467
16 Alabama 464
17 New Mexico 445
18 Utah 445
19 New Jersey 427
20 Mississippi 418
21 Arkansas 412
22 Georgia 402
23 Kentucky 401
24 Florida 379
25 Virginia 377
26 District of Columbia 361
27 Maryland 356
28 Texas 350
29 Illinois 334
30 Colorado 321
31 South Dakota 318
32 Wyoming 308
33 Alaska 305
34 Wisconsin 279
35 Minnesota 275
36 Nebraska 272
37 Missouri 253
38 Puerto Rico 252
39 Michigan 251
40 Louisiana 231
41 Oregon 230
42 North Dakota 226
43 Montana 222
44 Iowa 173
45 Idaho 167
46 Washington 164
47 Maine 162
48 Vermont 132
49 Hawaii 84
50 Kansas 24
51 Connecticut 0
52 Rhode Island 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,097
2 New York 1,901
3 Massachusetts 1,756
4 North Dakota 1,670
5 South Dakota 1,634
6 Connecticut 1,624
7 Rhode Island 1,608
8 Louisiana 1,568
9 Mississippi 1,547
10 Illinois 1,368
11 Michigan 1,269
12 Iowa 1,186
13 Pennsylvania 1,174
14 Indiana 1,164
15 Arizona 1,157
16 Arkansas 1,153
17 New Mexico 1,119
18 District of Columbia 1,088
19 South Carolina 1,001
20 Florida 987
21 Georgia 975
22 Nevada 962
23 Alabama 956
24 Maryland 944
25 Tennessee 944
26 Texas 934
27 Minnesota 923
28 Delaware 921
29 Missouri 921
30 Wisconsin 865
31 Montana 864
32 Kansas 860
33 Nebraska 818
34 Colorado 809
35 Idaho 759
36 Ohio 727
37 West Virginia 699
38 Wyoming 644
39 Kentucky 636
40 North Carolina 628
41 California 614
42 Oklahoma 598
43 Virginia 568
44 New Hampshire 520
45 Puerto Rico 452
46 Washington 431
47 Utah 378
48 Oregon 340
49 Alaska 262
50 Maine 240
51 Vermont 203
52 Hawaii 199

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New Mexico 12
2 Illinois 9
3 Michigan 9
4 Arkansas 8
5 Massachusetts 7
6 Pennsylvania 7
7 South Carolina 7
8 New York 6
9 South Dakota 6
10 Arizona 5
11 District of Columbia 5
12 Indiana 5
13 Minnesota 5
14 Mississippi 5
15 North Carolina 5
16 Kentucky 4
17 Maryland 4
18 Nevada 4
19 New Hampshire 4
20 Tennessee 4
21 West Virginia 4
22 Delaware 3
23 Florida 3
24 Georgia 3
25 New Jersey 3
26 Oklahoma 3
27 Vermont 3
28 California 2
29 Colorado 2
30 North Dakota 2
31 Puerto Rico 2
32 Texas 2
33 Virginia 2
34 Alabama 1
35 Louisiana 1
36 Maine 1
37 Missouri 1
38 Montana 1
39 Ohio 1
40 Oregon 1
41 Wisconsin 1
42 Alaska 0
43 Connecticut 0
44 Hawaii 0
45 Idaho 0
46 Iowa 0
47 Kansas 0
48 Rhode Island 0
49 Utah 0
50 Washington 0
51 Wyoming 0
52 Nebraska -1

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 269,262 1 99
Norton Kansas 218,429 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 214,220 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 213,001 4 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 212,578 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 96,124 319 89
Richland South Carolina 61,533 1550 50
York South Carolina 52,007 2044 34
Orange California 48,344 2216 29
Pierce Washington 29,474 2820 10

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,587 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,452 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,213 4 99
Foster North Dakota 5,919 5 99
Richland South Carolina 794 1777 43
Davidson Tennessee 779 1802 42
York South Carolina 634 2069 34
Orange California 581 2168 30
Pierce Washington 348 2603 17

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons